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Northern Current

How the fishability model works

The homepage shows one surface-level score: Fishability. Under the hood, the model blends trusted movement data, forecast weather, and spot-specific structure rules to answer a practical question: should you fish this water now, later, or not at all?

What Fishability Means

Green means the model sees a credible opportunity and the spot should be fishable enough to act on.

Yellow means there is still a path, but the spot is conditional or requires accepting tradeoffs.

Red means either the setup is not turning on, the execution cost is too high, or both.

What We Trust Most In V1

  • NOAA current stations are still the main anchor for tidal movement where a nearby station exists
  • SFBOFS now adds modeled bay-flow guidance for current speed, eddy behavior, and spots with weaker station coverage
  • NWS hourly wind forecast now anchors the broader bay wind read by zone
  • NWS sky-cover forecast now anchors the cloud read and 7-day outlook context
  • NOAA and USGS station data now anchor water temperature where possible
  • USGS turbidity now anchors the clarity heuristic by zone when a nearby station exists

Source Plan By Variable

Tide height and stage
Trusted forecast
V1 source: NOAA CO-OPS predictions
Authoritative tidal predictions for the Bay and the right anchor for hourly planning.
Current speed and direction
Trusted forecast
V1 source: NOAA CO-OPS current stations with SFBOFS modeled bay-flow guidance
NOAA station predictions still anchor phase and movement where nearby station coverage exists, and SFBOFS now adds modeled speed guidance for eddies, protected water, and station gaps.
Next step: Tighten per-spot station/model blending and eventually use richer SFBOFS flow context by zone.
Wind speed and direction
Trusted forecast
V1 source: NWS hourly forecast by bay zone, with Open-Meteo fallback
Free long-term forecast source from the National Weather Service, mapped into bay zones so wind can support the fishing read without depending on a paid map product.
Next step: Tighten zone mapping and compare against known on-water reads to improve local calibration.
Cloud cover
Trusted forecast
V1 source: NWS sky-cover forecast
Official forecast source that lines up well with the 7-day planning need.
Precipitation
Proxy / modeled
V1 source: Open-Meteo
Good enough for now, but not the long-term official weather source.
Next step: Upgrade to NWS forecast precipitation where the API coverage is practical.
Barometric pressure
Proxy / modeled
V1 source: Open-Meteo mean sea-level pressure forecast
Useful as a bay-wide weekly context signal, but not a strong enough local differentiator to drive spot ranking by itself.
Next step: Keep as a light context read unless a better official marine pressure workflow materially improves decisions.
Water temperature
Trusted forecast
V1 source: NOAA CO-OPS and USGS station-backed temperature, with Open-Meteo fallback
Station-backed reads are a much stronger fit for Bay fishing decisions than broad modeled sea-surface temperature alone.
Next step: Improve station mapping by zone and reduce fallback use over time.
Water clarity
Proxy / modeled
V1 source: USGS turbidity anchor plus modeled rain, wind, exposure, tide, and spot resilience
There is no universal direct clarity feed for every spot, so v1 still uses an inference, but it is now anchored by nearby USGS turbidity where possible.
Next step: Blend in more zone-specific exchange and suspended-sediment context.
Moon phase
Proxy / modeled
V1 source: Local astronomical calculation
Useful as a daily context signal for spring/neap tide windows, but it should not overpower direct conditions.
Next step: Keep as a low-weight context callout rather than a major score driver.
Ocean swell
Planned
V1 source: Not in Bay v1
Needed for Ocean Beach, Stinson, and Muir logic, but not required for the first Bay release.
Next step: Use NOAA/NDBC and marine forecast feeds in v2.

What Is Still Modeled

  • clarity is inferred from rain, wind, exposure, zone, and resilience of the spot unless a live turbidity anchor is available
  • spot fit is inferred from local structure type, preferred tide direction, current dependency, and light preference
  • the final score is an opinionated fishing recommendation, not a direct measurement
  • barometric pressure is included as a bay-wide weekly context read, not a spot-ranking driver
  • moon phase is included as a daily context callout for spring and neap tide windows, not as a dominant bite predictor

What Changed In This Pass

  • spot data and scoring rules are now split out of the homepage into reusable model files
  • wind is now driven by NWS hourly zone forecasts instead of a paid third-party map dependency
  • SFBOFS modeled flow guidance now supports current speed reads when station coverage is weak or local flow gets weird
  • the homepage now clearly distinguishes trusted source data from inferred values
  • a 7-day planning window now shows cloud, rain, wind, pressure, moon, and temperature context for the selected spot
  • the map now has a restrained zone-level wind overlay so wind supports the fishing read without turning the app into a weather site
  • the detail panel still keeps the condition breakdown and source story visible for the selected spot

What Is Still Coming

  • 7-day calendar views and future-window planning
  • fly recommendations by spot, condition, and likely water color
  • per-location or zone-based temperature differentiation
  • better tide translation by zone
  • deeper clarity logic by zone and exchange
  • ocean-specific logic for swell height, period, direction, and beach windows